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Should data inform or dictate your strategy?

William Goldman, the celebrated screenwriter behind such classics as The Princess Bride, All the President’s Men and Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, gave his verdict on Hollywood in his most famous quote: “Nobody knows anything.”

He went on: “Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.”

Yet the data Hollywood studios collect and analyse dwarfs the data collected by your average retail or product marketing department – pre-release surveys, social media monitoring, website traffic analysis, viewer surveys – anything and everything to determine what content viewers are interested in, and of course, who they’re interested in (actors being one of the most important aspects of film marketing).

Despite this, there are countless examples of studios getting it wrong, pumping millions of dollars into sure-fire hit movies and TV series that ultimately flop. Does this mean they’re not paying close enough attention to the data? The truth may be quite the opposite.

Are we over-reliant on data?

The Hollywood Reporter recently carried an in-depth analysis of streaming service Amazon Studios in which studio execs lament the over-reliance on data, with one commenting, “relying on data is soul crushing… there’s never, ‘I know the testing wasn’t that great, but I believe in this.’”

The problem is neatly summed up by another exec, who argues that if you rely entirely on data, you simply end up with lots of shows featuring “white guys with guns”.

The conclusion appears to be that despite (or perhaps because of) its heavy reliance on data and testing, Amazon hasn’t achieved the same success with its original shows as rival Netflix. In terms of minutes watched (according to Nielsen), Netflix shows took all top 10 places in 2022, with Amazon’s best entry, The Boys, lolling at number 11.

Even Amazon’s Rings of Power, the most expensive TV series ever made (and a “guaranteed” hit from a viewer anticipation perspective), failed to set the streaming world alight. Although it reached the number 15 spot, only 39 per cent of those who watched the first episode made it as far as the last in the series.

Importance of inspiration

There’s nothing wrong with the data studios are collecting, and marketers in any industry need to collect data. The availability of big data is probably the most important driver of change across all areas of marketing.

Back in the Dark Ages of marketing, data largely consisted of how many response coupons or customer phone calls you received. Marketers had to rely on inspiration as much as data, and frankly some companies (and people) were more inspired than others.

Goldman might have considered that the good ones just got lucky more often, but if you’ve been in marketing long enough, you know that some people are just better at seeing the bigger picture than others. And as marketers’ experience grows, many get much better at understanding how to connect with and inspire their customers and potential customers.

Arrival of big data

With the vast increase in customer insights enabled by digital channels, marketers embraced big data. Instead of working in the dark, we use big data to shine a light on what engages customers.

Data enables uninspired marketers to get into the game properly, giving them return on investment (ROI) data to inform future strategy. But data needs to be understood. For it to be truly effective, it needs people who can not only read and interpret it, but who can bring their own intuition and experience to bear to understand when the data might be sending you down the wrong path.

Problems can easily arise with data if you don’t know what you’re doing. For example, because certain channels are easier to measure and provide the ROI information demanded by finance departments and the Board, there is a natural tendency to favour channels that are easily measured.

However, inspired marketers know that marketing performance is not just about what can be measured immediately (clicks, conversions, etc), but also what customers feel about your brand, which in turn drives future sales, and might be increased by a better-designed website or engaging video content.

Over-reliance on immediate data might also encourage you to use incentives for easy wins, such as getting people to download your app or sign-up for offer emails. However, putting in place a strategy that measures and optimises behaviour across the entire sales funnel is more complex and requires some marketing smarts. No point lots of people downloading your app if hardly anyone uses it.

Human insights

People are fond of talking about data-driven marketing, but there are dangers in letting data completely drive your marketing decisions. While data can turn a poor marketer into an OK marketer, used correctly it can turn a good marketer into an absolutely inspired marketer.

This is because the best marketers combine their understanding of human behaviour and customer desires to produce strategies that are informed by the data, rather than dictated by it.

I’ve spoken often about the team of data scientists, data planners and cultural analysts who developed the Wickes Mission Motivation Engine (MME), which won Marketing Week’s top prize for 2022 – the Grand Prix – and delivered millions in extra revenue.

The team behind the MME comprises truly inspired marketers, creating a whole-funnel strategy that is fully informed by the data, but which draws heavily on their experience, intuition and expertise in drawing human insights from data.

The MME was so successful because it avoided the all-too-common mistake of looking for easy wins in one part of the sales funnel, while neglecting the customer journey as a whole.

More than a lucky guess?

I am pretty sure Netflix collects as much data as Amazon on what people want to watch. Was Netflix’s data better in 2022, enabling it to produce programmes that appealed to more viewers?

Or did the people at Netflix lean towards letting the data inform them rather than drive them?

Maybe they simply employed better programme makers that year? The mixed critical response to Rings of Power compared with the more positive response to Netflix’s flagship Stranger Things might support this notion.

Or perhaps, as Goldman might argue, Netflix just got lucky.

Whatever the truth of it, smart use of data can likely improve your marketing in any circumstance. However, the real magic still comes from the people.

With inspired marketers who understand how to pull human insights from the data and combine it with their own intuition, you have a much better chance of success than if you rely blindly on what the data appears to be telling you.

At the very least, and even Goldman might concede this one, your guesses will be more ‘educated’.